Brain Drain

Dr. Richard Deitz, a respected economist with the Federal Reserve, has posited a theory that WNY out migration is not as big an issue here as we might have been led to believe. He makes a distinction between "Brain Drain" and "Brain Gain" as representing out migration of educated workers and in-migration of educated workers, respectively.



His research is based on census data from 2000 and census projections from 1995. Given that the census questionnaire is anonymous, (and therefore difficult to track individuals, as opposed to communities) I am not sure how you can track those who have moved. There may be a question relating to immigration on the form, but I don't remember answering it seven years ago.

It is all basically an academic exercise, however. The fact is that there are fewer "brains" here, and we are losing them at a faster rate than many parts of the country.

The area is losing people at a troubling rate. (Apologies for the tables)

Erie County Population
1990 ```````2000``````2001 (est)`````2002 (Est.) `````2003 (Est.)
968,532 ````950,265 ``````946,209 ````942,794 ```````941,293
````````````-18,267 ```````-22,323 ````-25,738 ```````-27,239
[i] Bureau of the Census http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/36/36029lk.html

While this is, in itself, a problem; drilling down a little further we see the problem is far worse.


Population Decline among 20-34 year olds (Bureau of the Census)

``````````1990 `````````2000 ``````Net Change
20-24 ```61,162 ```````57,441`````````` -3,721
25-34 ``159,712 ``````119,168````````` -40,544

Total ``220,874 ``````176,579 `````````-44,265

So, while we are bleeding population, we are hemorrhaging young people.

The underlying problem to this, I would suggest, is the paucity of "good jobs". While some would argue that our loss of people in the 20-34 age bracket indicates those without a great deal of education or training, I can only respond rhetorically - what group is more likely to be lured away to Arizona or North Carolina - those whose education and skills are in high demand, or those who do not have this advantage?

I have seen firsthand the eagerness of employers from the far reaches of the country as they look at our Nursing, Engineering, Accounting and Education graduates.

Unfortunately, the fact that we have had anemic growth in employment (in the good times - outright decline overall through much of the past 25 years) is exacerbated by the perception that things are even worse that they truly are. Some employers struggle to find talented workers right here in WNY.

To fill those positions, employers have three choices: 1) Hire people who are currently here in WNY, 2) Lure people originally raised or educated here to repatriate, or 3) Convince strangers that everything (unflattering) they have heard about Buffalo is untrue.

Clearly option 1 is the cheapest and probably most effective way. Marti Gorman, Chris Smith and others have shown that option 2 is viable as well.

To plug the "brain drain" or accelerate the "brain gain" we first need to create an environment where jobs can be created (selling out for pennies on the dollar in boondoggle money from the power authority didn't help) and then work to help options 1 and 2 above occur.

Economics 101

Saw an interesting post on WNYMEDIA.net. It links to a site whose name implies it is close to the tinfoil hat crowd.

The post is interesting in a JK Rowling kind of way, but not in a Adam Smith kind of way.

At the risk of using facts, let me state an historical fact - lowering tax rates, the way Reagan did in the 80's and Kennedy did in the 1960's stimulates the economy and increases tax revenues.

Budget deficits grow when the government spends more than it takes in.

Every budget that Reagan presented to Congress was increased by that Congress under the leadership of Tip "Big Dig" O'Neill.

Reagan's economy saw an increase in real family income.


Reagan's tax policy resulted in more of the tax burden being borne by wealthier Americans.



These are facts, not opinions.

Where is the fairness?

So, Don Imus should lose his job because, surprise, he is an idiot, but let's hold our judgement of Michael Vick?

Here is the chair of the NAACP Legal Redress team on the Duke Lacrosse case - seems like he is trying the case in the court of public opinion, doesn't it?

And I was stuck doing boondoggle...

Times have changed for summer camp.